journal/

on-going mostly unedited stream of thoughts

how do we dream in the face of climate change

There was news last week that CO2 on earth has reached 415ppm, the highest it has been in millions of years. Our permafrost is melting at an unprecedented rate. The projections are depressing: even if we emit zero carbon now for the rest of our lives, we will still be facing dire climate change effects for at least the century to come:

So even if carbon emissions stopped completely right now, as the oceans catch up with the atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature would rise about another 1.1F (0.6C). Scientists refer to this as committed warming. Ice, also responding to increasing heat in the ocean, will continue to melt. There’s already convincing evidence that significant glaciers in the West Antarctic ice sheets are lost. Ice, water, and air – the extra heat held on the Earth by carbon dioxide affects them all. That which has melted will stay melted – and more will melt. – source

Our food chains will be disrupted as insects, fish, etc die out, and it is a matter of time we’ll be facing food shortages, diseases and unliveable conditions.

So I find it disturbing that most people are still going about as though nothing is happening. I wonder what is truly needed for us to stop in our tracks and think seriously about how we are going to live. I am not even talking about dropping everything to become climate activists or changing our consumption habits dramatically. I am thinking of how do we plan our lives, even if we want to live a self-centered existence, when climate change is looming over our heads?

Say saving or investing for example. The conventional wisdom is that we invest our savings in an index fund and watch it compound at an interest rate of at least 4% for decades to come. But I’m really skeptical that investment instruments and assets will be afforded the space to grow for the years to come (central banks are already sounding the alarm), especially if we’re facing times of political and economical instability. So the question is: how much longer can we invest traditionally, what will be truly valuable when everything goes to shit?

In the letter published by the Bank of England on Wednesday, Mr Carney and Mr Villeroy de Galhau describe “the catastrophic effects of climate change” already having an impact on the planet, such as “blistering heatwaves in North America to typhoons in south-east Asia and droughts in Africa and Australia”. They say that “these events damage infrastructure and private property, negatively affect health, decrease productivity and destroy wealth”. – source

People seem to think that we wouldn’t be experiencing the catastrophic effects in our lifetime. I think we’re misled by looking at things linearly. I personally believe it will hit a tipping point and suddenly it will look like the apocalypse. Wars may breakout because of resource shortages. But everyday I encounter people talking about the lives and plans as though there is all the time in the world. We’re still celebrating the IPOs or fundraising of companies that are toxic or do not add value to society. Our governments and media are obviously not sufficiently alarmed.

I find it difficult to plan for my future. I am looking at a ten-year path into psychotherapy and I am not even sure what the state of the world would be like in ten years. Someone wrote in his newsletter about Ted Chiang taking four years to learn about linguistics in order to write “The Story of Your Life” – the short story which was made into “Arrival” – and my immediate reaction was: yes we’re sorely missing the time needed to craft something of substance, but how many four years can we now afford?

How do we dream? Of writing that book, of improving our craft, of stepping into that career in our mid-lives, of doing that PhD, when everything seems so unstable? Do we go wholeheartedly into doing something we truly want to do regardless of the timeline, because we don’t know when and living to the fullest in spite of existential despair is the best response? Or do we give up our dreams because dreams do take time, and instead we should use that time to love? To spend our last years of relative peace with the people we love, the nature that is going to die, the cities that may no longer be preserved in their beauty?

I would like to know what you think.

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